The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the USGS, anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical M7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, with epicenter in Oakland. The fault is considered the most active and dangerous in the US because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. The scenario methodology is very similar to PEER’s performance-based framework: a hazard is postulated and defined, engineering is applied to determine consequences to buildings and lifeline networks, and social impacts are explored.
The USGS Fact Sheet can be found here: https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20183016
and the HayWired Earthquake Scenario reports published so far (Volume I: Earthquake Hazards and Volume II: Engineering Implications) can be found here: https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013
On April 18, the HayWired Scenario Rollout event started with a media tour in Fremont at the Science Center that featured a concrete slab located on top of, and hence shows the displacement at the Hayward fault. Later that morning, another media tour was held at UC Berkeley which highlighted seismic retrofit schemes of two unique and monumental structures: Hearst Memorial Mining Building, located yards away from the Hayward Fault, and the California Memorial Stadium which lies on top of the fault.In the afternoon, a press conference was held at the University Club located at the top of Memorial Stadium. HayWired researchers gave an overview of the scenario, followed by a series of responses from leaders, partners, and sponsors. The evening concluded with the Lawson Lecture where the HayWired researchers provided the overview of the scenario to the general public, followed by a question and answer session.
The USGS-led HayWired scenario team is building on the engineering analyses to further explore the societal consequences of the M7.0 earthquake, and the results are anticipated in October 2018. These issues include impacts on information and communications technology, risks to infrastructure and lifeline networks, community recovery including population displacement and social vulnerability, effects on jobs and the regional economy, and earthquake early warning.