Task F: Stochastic Simulation Models Development


  • To develop new alternative generalized stochastic simulation models using CENA data and the finite-fault simulation results to constrain the source spectrum.

The TI team plans to use stochastic simulations as the primary tool for developing median rock GMPEs. This will require the development of new general source models for this task. Although the source spectrum is expected to be a double-corner model, we use the more general “stochastic simulation model” term to refer to this task. It is possible that finite-fault stochastic models will also be developed as part of this task. A pair of general suites of models will be developed. It will be important to ensure consistency in implementation of the models with derivation of various input parameters that feed them. For example, the specification of the source/path parameters is closely linked with how those parameters were determined in the Path/source WG studies (Task D). The models should be consistent with large magnitude data (from finite-fault simulations and WUS data). Single-corner point source models will be a special case of the general models. The Simulations WG will lead the effort for the validation in collaboration with the TI team. The TI team will review the simulation results and select the model to be used in the forward computations, considering results from hazard feedback analyses.